Copper Price to Keep High in 2008, to Drop in 2009, Triland Metals

Triland Metals, which is ring dealing member of London Metal Exchange, forecasts copper 3-month future price is averaged US$ 7,900-8,100 per tonne for 2008. The firm revised the forecast downward by US$ 800 or 11% from estimate in April. The firm expects the weak demand could reduce the price level to averaged US$ 7,400-7,600 for 2009. The firm expects now higher aluminium and tin price and lower lead and zinc price. The firm expects world copper supply is 30,000 tonnes less than the demand in 2008, which represents first shortage in 3 years. The supply trouble including strike in Mexico, Peru and Chile and limited electricity supply in Africa reduces the supply. The firm, however, expects the market will focus on the weak demand with lower housing and automobile demand in USA and slower demand in China. The firm expects the weak demand could cool the market when the copper supply would be 100,000 tonnes more than the demand in 2009. The firm expects aluminium 3-month future price is averaged US$ 2,800-3,000 per tonne in 2008, which is US$ 300 or 11% higher than original outlook. The firm expects the price would be US$ 2,700-2,900 in 2009 when the supply could be 250,000 tonnes more than the demand compared with 100,000 tonnes of oversupply in 2008. The firm revised the tin price upward to US$ 21,500-22,500 per tonne for 2008, which is 26% higher than original. The firm revised the lead, zinc and nickel price downward by 24%, 16% and 13% respectively.