Unsettled Japan Copper Ingot Price for 2009

Japanese copper smelters failed to settle electrolytic copper ingot price with long term contracted users for 2009 shipment despite of the long run talk since late January while the smelters usually settle the price in January. The users cannot estimate the purchase volume under uncertainty for the demand.

The smelters already settled the export price with buyers in China, South Korea and Taiwan. However, the smelters cannot get forward the price talk. A smelter source said some major buyers said they cannot buy any copper in April and May. The users are expected to complete the inventory adjustment but the demand recovery is uncertain in and after April.

Japanese electric wire shipment is expected to decrease to less than 800,000 tonnes including export in fiscal 2009 starting April, which is the first time since fiscal 1976. The electric wire makers get almost no order from construction and wholesalers. Rolled copper makers are also expected to be severe in the year when the operation rate is less than 50% in January-March.

The copper premium should decrease in 2009 from 2008 when Chilean copper major, Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile (CODELCO) already settled the premium for Japan at CIF US$ 65 per tonne, which is US$ 37 lower than previous year. Japanese smelters settled the premium at around US$ 70 for China, US$ 64 for South Korea and US$ 65 for Taiwan.