Japan H-Beam Demand Expected at 3.1-3.2MT in F2009

Japanese H-beam demand is expected at 3.1-3.2 million tonnes per year in fiscal 2009 (Apr09-Mar10), down by around 10% from fiscal 2008, according to a Japanese integrated steel maker source. The demand was estimated at 3.4-3.5 million tonnes at the beginning of the fiscal year. However, the steel maker revised down the forecast with many extensions and cancels of building construction plans. The annual demand would become less than 3.3 million tonnes in fiscal 2002, the bottom after Japanese bubble economy burst. The source suggested the demand may shrink to around 3 million tonnes along economy condition.

An integrated steel maker source said general contractors tend to postpone building construction plans when steel market price is decreasing. H-beam demand is expected at 1.6 million tonnes in the first half of fiscal 2009, decreasing by 35% from the same period of fiscal 2008.

Meanwhile, the demand is expected to recover slightly in the second half year, which could increase by 5% year-on-year to about 1.6 million tonnes. However, the demand may keep the level as much as the second half of fiscal 2008 under unclear economy condition in Japan.

Japanese dealers’ H-beam inventory decreased for 4 consecutive months by the end of March. H-beam import shows a sign of decreasing due to underlying trend of cheap yen rate. Consequently, price drop in domestic H-beam market is slowing.

Annual H-beam demand was 3.5 million tonnes in fiscal 2008, which became below 3.6 million tonnes for the first time in 5 years. Nippon Steel reduced H-beam production by 21% in fiscal 2008 from fiscal 2007. Tokyo Steel Manufacturing reduced the output by 13%. JFE Steel decreased the production by 9%.

Users expect H-beam price more drop. Some integrated steel makers lowered their H-beam selling price more than Tokyo Steel’s for March-April.