Japan Rebar Demand to Drop by 10-20% in Oct-Dec

Japanese demand of concrete reinforcing steel bar is expected to decrease by 10-20% to 1.9-2 million tonnes in domestic makers’ shipment for domestic market in October-December from July-September. The volume is less than 70% of the recent peak of 2.92 million tonnes in April-June 2008. The demand is very slow when condominium building start is around 70% lower than a year earlier level. The rebar demand could decrease along with the shrinking condominium market.

The rebar demand is estimated to be 2.1-2.2 million tonnes in July-September, which is slightly higher than 2.05 million tonnes in April-June partly due to buyers’ speculative purchase in July-August. The condominium building start decreased by 60.3% in May, by 68.2% in June and by 71.9% in July from a year earlier.

The rebar demand is around 700,000 tonnes per month since the spring, which is around 20-30% lower than a year earlier level. The demand increased to 710,000 tonnes in June and 750,000 tonnes in July when the buyers tried to secure the products before makers’ hike in July-August.

The rebar demand around Tokyo was 310,000 tonnes in July and 290,000 tonnes in August, which was also lifted by the speculative purchase. The demand is estimated to be around 200,000 tonnes in September. With very slow actual demand, the market is expected to be severer in October-December than a year earlier while the demand also decreased by 20% in October-December 2008 from same period of 2007.