PPC Forecasts Global Copper Oversupply at 300,000T in 2010

Japanese largest copper smelter, Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) forecasts global electrolytic copper supply would become surplus against the global consumption by 300,000 tonnes in 2010. World copper consumption is expected to increase in 2010 from 2009 due to global economic recovery and China’s strong economic growth. Meanwhile, electrolytic copper supply wouldn’t increase so widely because of ore shortage. In 2009, the global supply seems to have been surplus against the demand by 800,000 tonnes, according to PPC.

PPC forecasts the global demand for electrolytic copper at 17.8 million tonnes in 2010, increasing by 3.5% from 2009. China’s consumption seems to have expanded to 6.3 million tonnes in 2009 from approximately 5 million tonnes in 2008, except for SRB’s stock of 280,000 tonnes. PPC estimates China’s consumption would increase by 8% in 2010 from 2009. Copper consumption is also expected to recover in Europe and USA.

On the other hand, PPC supposes the global ingot supply would increase only by 0.6% to 18.1 million tonnes in 2010 from estimated 18 million tonnes in 2009. China’s supply is likely to exceed 4.5 million tonnes in 2010 from estimated 4.2 million tonnes in 2009, when copper smelters are aggressively constructed or expanded in the country. However, ingot supply growth would be limited since copper ore supply is shortening.