World Copper Short Supply in 2010, Triland

Triland Metals, which is a ring member of London Metal Exchange, expects world copper ingot would be 75,000 tonnes of short supply in 2010 due to strong demand in China. The firm expects the 3-month future price would be averaged US$ 7,700-8,200 per tonne in the year when nonferrous metal investment continues under lower US dollar rate. The firm forecasts primary aluminium price is averaged US$ 2,000-2,300 per tonne when the oversupply is 500,000 tonnes compared with 1.8 million tonnes of oversupply in 2009.

The firm estimates the world copper supply turns into short supply for the first time in 3 years when the consumption increases by 8% to 19.125 million tonnes in 2010 from 2009 while the ingot production is 19.05 million tonnes due to short supply of ore. The supply was 305,000 tonnes of oversupply in 2009. The firm expects Chinese overstock is adjusted and China will continue import while the users will build inventory in industrial countries.

The firm expects world primary aluminium consumption increases by 8% to 38.1 million tonnes in 2010 from 2009 while the ingot production increases by 4% to 38.6 million tonnes. The firm forecasts the better demand improves the supply balance while the oversupply continues for 4 years in a row.

The firm expects averaged 3-month future price will be higher for lead, nickel, tin and zinc in 2010 from 2009 due to better supply condition. The firm forecasts investment by speculators in nonferrous metals supports the price level.