Japanese Flat Steel Bar Demand Forecasted at 950,000T in F2010

Japanese domestic demand for flat steel bar is estimated at around 950,000 tonnes per year in fiscal 2010 starting in April, according to Japanese major flat steel bar maker. The demand is likely to hit below 1 million tonnes for 2 years in a row though the volume increases by about 5% from fiscal 2009. The demand would bottom out in fiscal 2010 but the market shrinks to less than 50% from the peak at 2.12 million tonnes in fiscal 1990. It would take a time that the market volume favorably recovers.

The annual demand in fiscal 2009 is estimated at around 900,000 tonnes. Current production by domestic flat steel bar makers is approximately 75,000 tonnes per month. The production stays low despite of the slight recovery from 70,000 tonnes per month in the first half of fiscal 2009.

Flat bar demand is recovering for construction machines and industrial machines while maintains stagnant for constructions. Steel structural building starts in Japan totaled 39.69 million square meters of floor space in CY2009, the lowest since CY1968. Flat bar demand is impacted.

In fiscal 2010, large construction projects are expected to move steadily mainly for redevelopment plans in urban areas. Meanwhile, private sectors’ investment trend is unforeseeable.

Domestic flat steel bar shipment exceeded 1 million tonnes in fiscal 1986 and reached 2 million tonnes in fiscal 1989. The shipment became below 2 million tonnes in fiscal 1991 but kept above 1 million tonnes until fiscal 2008.