Global Primary Aluminium Oversupply Expected to Continue in 2011

Japanese major general trader, Marubeni Corporation summarized a report of International Aluminium Conference held by Metal Bulletin in Bahrain for September 20-22. The report says world aluminium demand is expected to keep recovering trend for a period, mainly supported by increasing aluminium consumption in emerging countries. Primary aluminium 3-month future price at London Metal Exchange (LME) is forecasted to keep the current range at US$ 1,900-2,300 per tonne or to represent gradual uptrend in 2011.

Global demand for primary aluminium is estimated to have increased by 28% in January-June 2010 compared with the same period of 2009. The annual consumption is forecasted at 1.3 million tonnes in 2010 against 1 million tonnes in 2009. The demand is expected to represent 8% year-on-year increase at least in 2011.

Meanwhile, oversupply of primary aluminium is likely to continue in 2011 due to establishment of new smelters. Major smelters are likely to keep present output levels as long as LME price and premium stay at current high levels. Thus, in 2011, global primary aluminium supply is forecasted to represent 1-2 million tonne surplus against the demand.

Premiums are expected to lower in 2011 compared with 2010. Premiums are forecasted at 6-7 US cents per pound for Midwestern USA, CIF US$ 190-240 per tonne for Europe including tax, and 90-110 yen per tonne for Japan.