Coal supply is supposed to tighten globally since major miners in East Australia announced force majeure at around the end of December due to regional heavy rain in late 2010. Japanese integrated steel makers now hold coal stocks for a month while start seeking other supply sources mainly in the U.S.A. for the case that Australian coal supply be seriously impacted by cyclones for January-March.
Major coal miners including BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, Australian largest coal miner, and Rio Tinto announced force majeure that they cannot maintain coal shipment. The miners are trying to recover the operations and to keep the shipment from the inventories. However, the miners are unlikely to deliver contracted volume fully to steel makers. Every year, Australian coal miners increase their inventories or remove excess soils before the cyclone season of January-March. The miners could not prepare for the cyclone season in late 2010. In this situation, Japanese integrated steel makers have moved to purchase coal from the U.S.A., Russia or Indonesia since late December. Current coal spot price exceeds the 3-month contract price of US$ 225 per tonne for January-March by urgent purchase from the U.S.A. and other sources, according to Japanese integrated steel maker. Some concerned sources forecast the 3-month contract price should rise for April-June. Coal supply have been forecasted to maintain tight in 2011 due to increasing coal import by emerging countries and the demand recovery in advanced countries. The price trend seems to strengthen more by output trouble in Australia.Japan Steel Scrap Composite Prices (Sangyo Press)
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