AMJ Forecasts Global Tungsten Short Supply by Max 10,000T in 2011

Japanese rare metal trading company, Advanced Material Japan (AMJ), forecasts global tungsten supply might shorten by maximum 10,000 tonnes against the demand in 2011. AMJ forecasts the global demand would total 71,000-75,000 tonnes in 2011, which keeps almost flat or increase by 6% compared with level in 2010. The demand is expected to recover mainly in advanced countries. Meanwhile, the global supply is forecasted to keep unchanged at around 65,000 tonnes in 2011. Tungsten procurement would become harder for the consumers in advanced countries, mainly cemented carbide tool makers.

AMJ analyzed tungsten demand in Japan, Europe and U.S.A. increased by 24% to 31,000 tonnes in 2010 from 2009. The demand was likely to increase by 50% in Europe. In 2011, the demand in these areas is forecasted at 33,000-37,000 tonnes. The maximum volume could approach the recent peak level in 2008. Meanwhile, the forecast hasn’t involved the effect of Japan Earthquake.

China’s demand is forecasted at 35,000-38,000 tonnes in 2011. AMJ estimates the demand would decrease from 38,000-40,000 tonnes in 2010 since the demand expanded by 25-35% in 2010 from the previous year. Despite of the year-on-year decrease, China’s demand is expected to exceed the demand in advanced countries.

As for the global supply, tungsten concentrate production is forecasted at 65,000 tonnes of tungsten trioxide in China and 15,000 tonnes in the other countries for 2011. The supply wouldn’t increase from the volume in 2008. Tungsten production is estimated at around 65,000 tonnes if concentrate purity is around 80%.