South Korea Steel Export Tops Import after 10 Years, POSRI

POSCO Research Institute estimates steel consumption increases by 3.3% to 54.14 million tonnes in South Korea for 2011 from 2010, which increases for 2 years in a row. The institute estimates the steel output increases by 9.0% to 71.87 million tonnes, which hit the highest record due to capacity expansion. The steel export would increase by 8.5% to 27 million tonnes to hit the record and the import would decrease by 12.5% to 21.95 million tonnes including hot rolled coil and semi-finished steel, according to the institute. The institute expects export surplus for the first time in 10 years. The surplus could increase more after 2012 due to capacity expansion including Hyundai Steel’s No.3 blast furnace construction while domestic demand in 2011 would be around 4 million tonnes lower than the peak in 2008.

POSCO Research Institute revised down the estimation for South Korean steel demand for 2011 by 930,000 tonnes compared with the estimation in January this week. The institute estimates the demand decreases for construction compared with the original plan while increases for automobile and shipbuilding.

The institute revised up estimation for South Korean steel output for 2011 by 1.96 million tonnes compared with the estimation in January when Hyundai Steel started operation of No.2 blast furnace and hot rolling mill.

The institute revised up estimation for South Korean steel export by 1.84 million tonnes for 2011 from the estimation in January. The institute expects higher demand for emerging countries and recovery for the damage of the major earthquake in Japan. The institute estimates finished steel import deceases by 1.05 million tonnes from the level in January.

The institute estimates South Korean steel import including hot rolled coil and semi-finished products would decrease by 680,000 tonnes for 2011 compared with the estimation in January. However, the institute revised up the estimation for export surplus for 2011 almost doubles from 2.5 million tonnes compared with the estimation in January.