The amount of the steel consumption in South Korea increased by 1.0% to 56.7 million tonnes in 2012 from 2011, which increased for 3 consecutive years, according to POSCO Research Institute (POSRI). The growth rate decreases in 2012 from 2011 of 7.2%. Mr. Kim, institute head of POSRI, said on the interview with Japan Metal Bulletin the growth rate of South Korean GDP is expected to decrease to the first half of 3% in 2012 from 3.6% in 2011 when construction investment turns into increase for the first time in 3 years, while the automobile output is expected to be record high, but the growth rate of automobile output decreases to over 1% and the demand turns into decrease for shipbuilding. POSRI expects the steel products production increases by 3.1% in 2012 from 2011.
POSRI forecasts the steel export achieves to 30 million tonnes in 2012, while the steel import continues to decrease. The export was over from the import in 2011 for the first time in 10 years, and is over by 8 million tonnes from the import in 2012. Mr. Kim expects the steel consumption increases in 2012 for 3 consecutive years, while is below 1.9 million tonnes of the peak level in 2008 due to low activity level of demand. Mr. Kim forecasts the steel output exceeds in 2012 from 2011 when achieved to 70 million tonnes for the first time because the excess of export come to stay by expansion of production capacity. Mr. Kim forecasts low demand and oversupply are agenda for South Korean steel industry in 2012 when the industry has excess capacity from domestic demand, while overseas steel makers increase the export due to low demand in each country. Mr. Kim apprehends export competition becomes severe in East Asia and there is the danger of trade conflict.