Japan Steel Consumption Estimated at 61.6MT in F2011, 2% Y/Y Up

Japanese steel consumption is estimated to increase by 2% or 1.3 million tonnes to approximately 61.6 million tonnes in fiscal 2011 ending in March 2012 from 2010, according to several sources of Japanese integrated steel makers. Steel consumption decreased by 5% to 29.65 million tonnes for April-September 2011 from the corresponding period of fiscal 2010 mainly due to troubles in supply chains for Japanese manufacturing industry after the Japan Earthquake. Steel consumption is expected to rebound by 8% to around 32 million tonnes in the second half year compared with the first half year.

For October 2011-March 2012, carbon steel consumption in Japan is estimated to rebound by 8.4% to 25.5 million tonnes and special steel consumption to recover by 5.5% to 6.5 million tonnes compared with the first half of fiscal 2011.

Carbon steel consumption by construction sector is estimated to increase by 6.7% to 9.7 million tonnes. The consumption by manufacturing industry would increase by 9.5% to 15.8 million tonnes.

In manufacturing industry, the consumption by automobile sector is estimated to jump by 25.6% to 6.3 million tonnes while the consumption for industrial machines to increase by 6.4% to 2.65 million tonnes. The consumption by electric appliance sector would level off at 1.6 million tonnes. The consumption in shipbuilding is estimated to decrease by 9.6% to 2.5 million tonnes. Completed car production in Japan is forecasted to rebound by 37% to 5.35 million sets while new shipbuilding starts in Japan are estimated to decrease by 11.4% to 7.8 million gross tons.

In a full year of fiscal 2011, carbon steel consumption in Japan would total 49 million tonnes, increasing by 1.8% from fiscal 2010, while special steel consumption would recover by 3.6% to 12.6 million tonnes.

Japan Iron & Steel Federation forecasts Japanese steel consumption decreases by 3% to 60.4 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 from fiscal 2011. Japanese crude steel production is forecasted at around 100-105 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 to reflect steel export slowdown and steel import volume up.