Uncertainty Increases in Nonferrous Metal Market

Nonferrous metal market increases the uncertainty toward the end of the year when world economy slows down due to financial crisis started in USA. International market price decreased by 25% for copper and aluminium from the recent peak in July due to slower demand in developed countries while rare metal market is also weak. The metal market could keep uncertain while some industry interests expect the price would be supported limited supply and cost factors. Japanese interests expect international copper price is US$ 6,000-8,000 per tonne in October-March 2009 period. Under their expectation, current copper price is near bottom when copper settlement price was US$ 6,590 at London Metal Exchange on Monday. Mr. Tomomichi Akuta, who is metal analyst of Mitsubishi UJF Research & Consulting, expects international copper price could decrease to around US$ 6,000 per tonne but the price down couldn’t continue long term. Japanese interests expect limited supply including lower copper ore grade and labor dispute could support the market. Japanese interests expect LME aluminium market could hit bottom soon when the price is already less than breakeven point at less than US$ 2,400 per tonne. However, they expect the price couldn’t increase to more than US$ 2,900 under slower demand for automobile and housing. They also expect higher production cost supports the metal prices including lead, zinc and nickel. Slower worldwide economy pressures on the rare metal market. Japanese industry interests expect molybdenum and cobalt price keeps decreasing gradually under slower demand while they expect Chinese dominated products including antimony and tungsten could keep high price level.